Roundball Roundup

Immediately after my last post, I regretted writing it. Confidence leads to overconfidence which leads to a state of misery. That's what happened after the Bucks beat a flat LAL team, Flip Saunders was rumored for the U of Minn head coach position and Denger cemented his status as the Bulls leading scorer. With that said, I'm very happy with my picks to-date. My only regret is not placing more on the Bodog props that I considered - I placed many of these for $5 solely to have action. These include Shaq not playing 65 games, Randolph as Por's leading scorer, ZaZa as the Hawks leading rebounder, Tinsley to play 55, Brand under 24.7 points and a multitude of others.That's missing money right there. Let's focus on the larger action: Pistons look great and are on an 8-game winning streak, trailing only Orlando in the East - I've got Orl over for 1 unit. But I have Cleveland over and Hawks under for 1 unit each, and both look terrible. My cousin suggested all 3, I blame him for any losses. I also have Memphis under 38 for 2 units - that's a net gain of 0.7 units in all (excluding Detroit which is a Flip Saunder bet for several more units). NOK under 40.5 was my cousin's other pick and I placed 3.75 units on it - I also liked the pick. NOK began the season 8-3 but has now lost 5 straight, several to bad teams. Peja's injury has really hurt them - he's missed the last 3 with back spasms - and there's no timetable for his return, thankfully. This one will likely be decided in the final week of the season.SA continues to struggle - struggle being defined as a 12-5 record. Last year, they began the season 19-5. Finley is terrible (32%) and Manny has missed several games with a back strain. This one frustrates me as this team is tired, old and unmotivated. And also one of the best in the league. The 7.35 units is a bit important to me. The Bucks are currently 5-10 and well on their way to 5-11 as they're down 10 to GSW with 8 to go. Charlie V is still out to my advantage. But Milwaukee has played better recently which concerns me. And 10 of their 16 games have been on the road. Note that Chicago was 3-9 to open the season, hurt by bad road performance. Hopefully, Milw loses tonight (now down 6, Mo has shot 1-15), then to Utah to close the trip. But their schedule gets a lot better during the next 10 games. Update: Milw now tied. Jesus). This is stressful. More to follow later on lessons I've learned and plans for next year. - farfel

Things are running GREAT!

If my NBA bets were running any better, I would be waking up from a dream. Detroit has won 6 straight and leads the Central, with upcoming games versus 4 patsies followed by a 4 game road swing. Detroit's solid play continues to make me comfortable with the boatload of coin dropped on Flip remaining as head coach. Only 68 games to go. I expected Milwaukee to lose more than 40 games; I did not expect them to lose 57 - their current pace with a present 4-9 record. Charlie V and Bobby Simmons' injuries have really hurt, something just seems off with this team. There are calls for Stott's exit, some betting whether he or Doc Rivers will be the first to go. Milwaukee plays on the road this week vs. LAL, Pho, GSW and Utah. Winning 2 games would be a miracle, 1 a surprise, returning home winless on the trip my prediction. However, they do follow that trip with games vs. 4 terrible teams which will even things out. Det and Milw are the crucial bets for me, Detroit more so. I feel good about both, would make the same picks today, and would only sell them off for minimum 80% of value. But...if SAS, NOK and Baron all result in losses, that erases the Bucks winnings. SAS is now 11-3 after a road win vs. Sea which ranks 2nd in the league. NOK has dropped 3 straight after a great start and is 8-6, with 9 of those games on the road. And Baron is out with a rib injury. That one worries me a lot. Dwight Howard continues to lead the league in rebounds and that makes me very happy. More next week, so far so good. - farfel

NBA action in list form

Bucks Under 41.5 wins Will Bernie Bickerstaff be fired this season? NO Bulls leader in scoring. Gordon. Hinrich. Flip fired as coach? NO Shaq Under 29.1 points and rebounds Cwebb Under 30.1 points and rebounds Wilcox Under 22.7 points and rebounds Baron games played. Over 61.5 Rip over 20 points per game NYK traded first = Malik Rose Hornets under 40.5 wins Spurs over 56.5 wins Hawks Under 28.5 wins Cavs Over 49.5 wins Grizz Under 38 wins Rebound Leader: Dwight Howard - farfel

10 game update

Let's do a quick review of performance to-date. Extended gank to follow in weeks ahead as the holiday slows my roll. Milwaukee has hit the skids, presently 3-7. Charlie V is out 4-6, played 4 home games to-date. Need them to really stink it up as they end heavy home. This one certainly looks good. Milwaukee needs to go at least 39-33 the rest of the way to cost me. Flip and the Pistons have looked better as of late. I'm confident he doesn't leave the position this season. It's a year of adjustment. I'm nervous as can be, albeit confident. Is that possible? Joe D is not gonna let go of Flipper, he needs to stick with this guy. Baron missed his first game tonite. Not a good thing. But at least he's been healthy to-date, hopefully they let this heal. And as nutlow said, he got injured during a game which is a plus. The Spurs took home a nice one at Por, but NOK is playing too well. Orlando lost at Mem which hurt both ways. Howard had 22-22 - his rebound title would be a huge plus. Denger is shooting great (wail), I need Captain K and Benner to step up. I missed a couple wagers Bodog had available. Woulda dropped Mem coin on Utah to win the division at 6-5, NJN to win division 1-3, and Orl to win division at 3-1 (may have been 4-1). Lines are no longer available so can't place these. Certainly have enough action...but I'm losing value / money by not placing these. Minorly miffed that I didn't follow my reads with Randolph, Kobe, and that I took Rose to be traded and didn't take Francis and Marbury to underperform. With Lil Nate and Crawford getting minutes, no way those 2 are gonna average anything. Oh well, happens. Pumped for next year. Flip is most important, feel good there. Then Bucks, feel good there. SAS is solid, Baron worries me, NOK is gonna hurt, Orl is OK, Howard rebounding would cover a couple of those - got Howard at +400! More next week. - farfel

Sunday Diary

Sunday seems a natural day to update, perfect to do while watching football, so expect this to become a weekly habit. Flip - The Pistons took a West Coast swing and went 1-3 on the trip, beating LAL while losing to Sac, Utah and GSW. The Utah one was a great game, Rip had a layup blocked at the buzzer. Rip was injured for the LAL game, still a win, then a dud vs. GSW. Article in the Freep mentioned the team may be holding back for the playoffs. Teyshaun said no but I hope they're holding back something. They've got 3 full days off before returning to face NOK at home on Wednesday. I still feel Flip is safe but no one's happy with a 3-4 record. By the way, I looked up when most coaches have been fired, historically. The 55 game mark seems the absolute max, anything more may be disruptive and doesn't give the new coach a chance. So if Flip can last 50 more games, I'll feel a lot better. Milwaukee has really stunk it up recently which makes me worry about Terry Stotts. But my money cums first and the squad is now 2-5 after a 2-1 start. Bogut has stunk it up, Charlie V isn't dropping his usual load. The downside is Milw has played all good teams save Toronto. The upcoming schedule includes Atl, NJN, Indy (home and road), Philly and Boston. I expect a 3-3 record at worst. - farfel

6 Game Post-Mortem

We're 6 days in...and it's never too early to review this season's selections. The Milwaukee pick worries me. They've played a lot better than I expected in each game, defeating Detroit and Sacramento while losing at Toronto. Bogut is an outstanding and vital cog for the Bucks, rebounding well and setting up others with his passing and screening. Charlie V is proving that year's performance was no fluke, Redd is earning his money and Patterson is a solid energy guy. With all that said, the Bucks played well in the first half last season before slipping in the later portion of the year. If only Bogut can get injured...Redd...even Patterson. Maybe Simmons returning will throw off their chemistry. The Flip Saunders pick looks OK. They're 2-1 after an opening night loss at home to Milwaukee. I continue to believe management will give Flip at least this season and only way he leaves is via his own resignation, and I doubt that will happen as few leave with so much money left on their contract, no matter how rich they are. NOK has started off 3-0 which makes me miserable. Taking them may not have been a good move. Add Chris Paul to the list of players never to bet against. San Antonio looks like a good late pick. Nice win at Toronto tonight...why was it 56.5? Those are the main 4 in addition to Baron playing over 61.5. The most important are, in order, Flip, Milw, SAS, Baron and NOK. And Malik Rose getting traded would make me happy as would Howard winning the rebound title. Maybe I can lay off the Bucks via tradesports? Nutlow, any thoughts? -Dropped a unit on Sac vs. the Bucks via nutlow. Thankfully, I didn't lay the 2.5 units I was planning to drop via Bodog. My logic seemed good - Sac has played well vs. Milw, Charlie had a calf, Sac following a big win nearby. As it went, Miller popped a leg and Sac laid an egg after a nice 1st half. Maybe shoulda dumped out at the half. End of my daily action, for sure. - farfel

Let's Get it On!!! (Continued)

- How many Points + Rebounds will Shaquille O'Neal average by the end of the regular season? Under 29.1 at -120. The Diesel played a mere 30.4 mpg last season - his lowest ever and averaged 20.o points and 9.2 rebounds. I have no expectation Shaq will improve on those numbers and at 34, turning 35 in March, I expect those numbers to decline immediately - even if it is by just a tenth. Shaq has played 941 regular season games along with 194 playoff games - that's a lot of gametime. Consider that David Robinson played fewer games during his entire career and fell off considerably beginning at age 35. - How many PPG will Richard Hamilton average by the end of the regular season? Over 20.0 at -115. This portion of Rip's ESPN player profile led me to this pick: 2006-07 outlook: Rip might not make the All-Star team again, and it'd be a shock if he repeated as 3-point champ, but he should keep running opponents ragged and again get his 20 points a game. In fact, his average may increase since he's likely to play more minutes than a year ago -- Hamilton averaged only 35.3 last year thanks to all the Detroit blowouts. He'll also get more shots if the Pistons have any major injuries -- something they've been freakishly immune to the past three years -- so there's the potential for him to have a big year statistically even if his efficiency doesn't change much. I wonder if the addition of Flip Murray will cut into Rip's minutes though I can see Detroit going small with Chauncey, Flip, Rip, Tey and Rasheed at times. Rip has awesome stamina, reminding me of Reggie Miller, and I'm confident he can hold his 20 ppg average. This isn't a tier 1 pick, however I feel good about it. - farfel

Let's Get it On!!!

The long-awaited NBA season begins in 2 days and I can't wait! It's time to bring out the season over/unders, the player prop bets and the random assortment of wagers that Bodog is throwing out this year. Let's review what I'm dropping my roll on this season. -Will Flip Saunders be fired as the coach of the Detroit Pistons before the end of this regular season? NO. Take this one at -180. The team won 64 games a year ago before struggling in the playoffs. They lost Ben Wallace aka The Body while adding Nazr and Flip Murray, with Delfino and Maxiell expected to play larger roles off the bench. GM Joe Dumars has had 4 coaches during his 6 year run with the Pistons. He fired George Irvine after 1 season, both Rick Carlisle and Larry Brown after 2 seasons, before hiring Flip Saunders a year ago. Note that these 3 coaches were all fired AFTER the season. If Flip is gonna go, it'll be following this season - not during. The Pistons are expected to experience some difficulty after losing their defensive anchor, Joe will not give Flip the quick hook. -Milwaukee Under 41.5 games. Take this one at -125. I'll admit to extreme nervousness about this one. I think it will be close, I just cannot see the Bucks winning 42+ in a tight Eastern Conference. How are they any better than last season's 40 win team which improved +10 wins from the prior season? They added Charlie V, Reuben Patterson, Steve Blake, Brian Skinner and Lynn Greer, while losing Magloire, TJ Ford and Joe Smith. Bogut has a bad foot and Simmons is out with a bad heel. Both are out for undetermined periods of time. This is a max 40 win team likely to finish behind Det, Cle, Chi, NJN, Mia, Orl, Wash and Indiana in the East. -Will Michael Jordan hire a new head coach before the end of the regular season? NO. Get it at -110. I asked Rick Bonnell of Cha Observer about this. He said that Bernie has 2 years left on his deal and it makes no sense to fire him during the season unless something disastrous happens. I don't expect the disastrous for Charlotte this season. They have healthy Okafor and May, sophomore Felton, solid Wallace and Brezec plus Morrison. These guys work hard and are destined for a 30-win season. I doubt Bernie will return next season. He will last through the end of this season. Note that Charlotte is struggling with financial issues as they have the lowest payroll in the league (even less than the Hawks!) and have no arena sponsor. Absorbing a couple $m will not make Bob Johnson or the notoriously pernerious Jordan very happy. -Who will lead the Chicago Bulls in PPG average by the end of the regular season? Take Hinrich at +200 and Gordon at +150. You net coin if either of these guys wins out. Gordon led the team last year and Hinrich followed. The duo were 2 and 3 in 04-05 when Curry was the team points leader. The only other contenders on the team are Deng and Nocioni who will play together at times, while halving minutes versus certain teams due to matchup problems. I don't love this one because I wonder if Deng or Chapu will break out but I will drop an appetizer on it. - How many PPG will Kobe Bryant average by the end of the regular season? The number is 35.1. I really want to take the Under but I've learned to never bet against Kobe. I'll put a hangnail on it for giggles. -How many games will Baron Davis play during the regular season? Over 61.5. This is a 'feel' pick, a way of rationalizing betting on this guy to play 62 after playing 54, 46 and 67 in his last 3 seasons, respectively. Baron is supposedly in better shape after working hard this summer and appears to be energized to play for Nellie. It's not a major play for me, I will go for it because I believe in Baron and Nellie. -Which player will be traded first during the 2006-07 regular season? Take Malik Rose at +400. The other candidates are Starbury, Francis, Crawford, Jalen and Fat James. This is a collossal blunder on Bodog's part, a virtual freeroll. Rose is the most likely player to be traded - and he's +400! Starbury and Francis are untradeable due to their contracts plus Isiah needs to give them a full season to see if they can work together. Crawford's contract is through '11 and he's NY's best clutch player. He's affordable compared to Steph and Steve. Jalen is going to be bought out, the 17m left on his deal is tough to move. Fat James is signed through '10 and has proven himself to be a lanky lug stealing money. Rose has 2 years, 15m left on his deal and could serve as an effective backup PF for any team - with Frye and Lee there is no reason to have Rose. If none of these players are traded, your money is returned. I love this one. - farfel