The long-awaited NBA season begins in 2 days and I can't wait!
It's time to bring out the season over/unders, the player prop bets and the random assortment of wagers that Bodog is throwing out this year.
Let's review what I'm dropping my roll on this season.
-Will Flip Saunders be fired as the coach of the Detroit Pistons before the end of this regular season? NO. Take this one at -180. The team won 64 games a year ago before struggling in the playoffs. They lost Ben Wallace aka The Body while adding Nazr and Flip Murray, with Delfino and Maxiell expected to play larger roles off the bench. GM Joe Dumars has had 4 coaches during his 6 year run with the Pistons. He fired George Irvine after 1 season, both Rick Carlisle and Larry Brown after 2 seasons, before hiring Flip Saunders a year ago. Note that these 3 coaches were all fired AFTER the season. If Flip is gonna go, it'll be following this season - not during. The Pistons are expected to experience some difficulty after losing their defensive anchor, Joe will not give Flip the quick hook.
-Milwaukee Under 41.5 games. Take this one at -125. I'll admit to extreme nervousness about this one. I think it will be close, I just cannot see the Bucks winning 42+ in a tight Eastern Conference. How are they any better than last season's 40 win team which improved +10 wins from the prior season? They added Charlie V, Reuben Patterson, Steve Blake, Brian Skinner and Lynn Greer, while losing Magloire, TJ Ford and Joe Smith. Bogut has a bad foot and Simmons is out with a bad heel. Both are out for undetermined periods of time. This is a max 40 win team likely to finish behind Det, Cle, Chi, NJN, Mia, Orl, Wash and Indiana in the East.
-Will Michael Jordan hire a new head coach before the end of the regular season? NO. Get it at -110. I asked Rick Bonnell of Cha Observer about this. He said that Bernie has 2 years left on his deal and it makes no sense to fire him during the season unless something disastrous happens. I don't expect the disastrous for Charlotte this season. They have healthy Okafor and May, sophomore Felton, solid Wallace and Brezec plus Morrison. These guys work hard and are destined for a 30-win season. I doubt Bernie will return next season. He will last through the end of this season. Note that Charlotte is struggling with financial issues as they have the lowest payroll in the league (even less than the Hawks!) and have no arena sponsor. Absorbing a couple $m will not make Bob Johnson or the notoriously pernerious Jordan very happy.
-Who will lead the Chicago Bulls in PPG average by the end of the regular season? Take Hinrich at +200 and Gordon at +150. You net coin if either of these guys wins out. Gordon led the team last year and Hinrich followed. The duo were 2 and 3 in 04-05 when Curry was the team points leader. The only other contenders on the team are Deng and Nocioni who will play together at times, while halving minutes versus certain teams due to matchup problems. I don't love this one because I wonder if Deng or Chapu will break out but I will drop an appetizer on it.
- How many PPG will Kobe Bryant average by the end of the regular season? The number is 35.1. I really want to take the Under but I've learned to never bet against Kobe. I'll put a hangnail on it for giggles.
-How many games will Baron Davis play during the regular season? Over 61.5. This is a 'feel' pick, a way of rationalizing betting on this guy to play 62 after playing 54, 46 and 67 in his last 3 seasons, respectively. Baron is supposedly in better shape after working hard this summer and appears to be energized to play for Nellie. It's not a major play for me, I will go for it because I believe in Baron and Nellie.
-Which player will be traded first during the 2006-07 regular season? Take Malik Rose at +400. The other candidates are Starbury, Francis, Crawford, Jalen and Fat James. This is a collossal blunder on Bodog's part, a virtual freeroll. Rose is the most likely player to be traded - and he's +400! Starbury and Francis are untradeable due to their contracts plus Isiah needs to give them a full season to see if they can work together. Crawford's contract is through '11 and he's NY's best clutch player. He's affordable compared to Steph and Steve. Jalen is going to be bought out, the 17m left on his deal is tough to move. Fat James is signed through '10 and has proven himself to be a lanky lug stealing money. Rose has 2 years, 15m left on his deal and could serve as an effective backup PF for any team - with Frye and Lee there is no reason to have Rose. If none of these players are traded, your money is returned. I love this one.
 - farfel |
