Ship It!

I was hot this year with NBA over/unders and looking forward to next year. My wonder is, what process is optimal to determine next year's selections? For this year, I examined prior year data, read every preview magazine I could as well as local articles, looked at team schedules, and went with my gut feelings. 5 picks ended up being unders, 5 overs. In preparing for next year, I'm planning to do the same things - research, research, and more research. I'll speak with friends who know a bit about their hometown teams - the Lion Tamer and Toddy follow the Hawks, my cousin Richard knows the Knicks and the NBA, nutlow has a decent command of most teams, more so the Eastern Conference. Once the lines are released - around October 20, I guesstimate - I'll check each sportsbook for any variance. I'm thinking of using TradeSports if that's possible. I would buy the Nets to win over 47 games, for example, then have the opportunity to sell them for more than 47 to another bidder, or less, depending on their season to-date performance. The advantage of TradeSports is that it would allow me to exit pending wagers rather than conventional sportsbooks which are strict no-refund. Thoughts?    - farfel

One of my guys

He's long, skinny, young, and multidimensional. Welcome Jared Jeffries to the house. Jeffries is guaranteed to receive a lot of exposure in the NBA playoffs due to his defensive matchup, attempting to guard LeBron James. And it's perfect timing for Jeffries as he's a pending restricted free agent - he can sign with any team this summer while Washington has the right to match any offer. Jeffries is listed at 6'11" though he seems closer to 6'9". He's a lean 240 pounds at the tender age of 24. Jeffries is a player with pure upside. He left Indiana after taking the team to the NCAA finals in his freshman season and has played in 256 regular season games with Washington in parts of 4 seasons; he blew out a knee and played in only 20 games his rookie year. He'll be the equivalent of an NBA rookie with 1 year of college and 3 full pro seasons played. Jeffries averaged only 6 points and 5 rebounds as the Wizards starting small forward this season, though he is a valued member of the squad as he does all the "little things," playing strong defense and grabbing loose balls. The Washington Times reported recently that Wizards executives are split of whether to re-sign Jeffries. I'd assume some feel they can upgrade the position with a better scorer while others value his defensive contributions and see big potential. I see the upside. He can play multiple positions, he fits in with any team, he can finish on the break, he's a good glue guy. He's especially valuable to the Wiz considering how badly they are on the defensive end, desperately missing Larry Hughes. Several teams would be wise to offer Jeffries the ~5m mid-level exemption which I assume he'd take after assessing his value, though I would not be stunned if someone offered him up to 8m per season. Jeffries would be an outstanding addition to the Knicks, a team in need of a solid small forward, Jalen Rose need not apply. Jeffries would optimally fit Larry Brown's craving for players who "play the right way," unselfishly on the offensive end and impactful defensively. Detroit would also be wise to grab Jeffries. He can back up Chauncey, Rip, or Tey, give them another defensive stopper. He'd mesh perfectly with the character of Detroit's squad and would be comfortable with their offensive system which is largely free of isolation plays. Cleveland could also use Jeffries. Move LeBron to the point late in the game, Hughes stays at the 2, and Jeffries takes the 3. That's 3 guys 6'5" and over. The Clippers could also be a home. They are evidently looking to move Maggette, their starting small forward for much of the season. Reign in Jeffries and make him the starting 3 or bring him off the bench behind Quintin Ross. It's possible that Jeffries would be a better fit in the wide-open Western conference style rather than the at-times grinding Eastern Conference tempo. Golden State would also be a nice home though considering Mike Dunleavy is their starting small forward, anyone would be an upgrade over him. I'd expect Jeffries to re-sign with Washington for a 5 year deal at around 35-40m total, though I believe his talent would be best used on another team.    - farfel

KWAME, KOBE, KAREEM and HIS JACKET

That was a sweet night of basketball. All of the games and lines were close with the exception of the Lakers/Suns under which was an easy call. Tomorrow, Farfel likes the Grizzlies +1, as do I, especially since some sites have the line posted as even up. Memphis has been great at home all year and Memphis should be rocking tomorrow. You have to go under no matter what the total is- it just happens to be 181. The Pacers are getting two points and I think if you have to take one side or the other than this is the side to take. Of course, very few people are going to be required to bet on this game. The Nets are in a must win situation, trying not to fall behind 3-1 in the series. Jersey shot 7-16 from the 3-point line, they hit their free throws and only committed 8 turnovers, so that loss can'’t be easily explained by an aberrant breakdown in one category. The Nets haven't been that good on the road all year and are now 1-5 ATS this season against the Pacers. Indiana has been playing above themselves, so let's see if they have any killer instinct. How about them Lakers? Kobe is a new man. Mr. Positivity played a Steve Nash type game again, showing that he is the real MVP regardless of which Kobe shows up. And what can we say about Kwame Brown? I don't know who deserves the credit for turning him into a serviceable player but the conventional wisdom is that Kareem has been working with him. I only bring this up as justification to put up the photo of Kareem at game 2 in Phoenix. I had the Mets and Pedro today which worked out well, except the bullpen gave up two runs in the ninth to void my under. Glavine goes tomorrow and I think that would be a solid pick. The Braves are hitting .211 versus left-handers this season and despite today's mistep, the Mets have the lowest bullpen ERA in the National League. Blue Jays +250 looks like good value. Had the Blue Jays today which was an easier pick. Randy Johnson throws tomorrow and although he isn'’t just a regular lefty, the Blue Jays are killing southpaws to the tune of a .385 AVG, by far tops in the AL. The Yankees aren'’t too shabby as they hit everybody well but +250 is attractive. Besides, Johnson isn'’t as good during the day and had some problems with the Blue Jays last season. I don't like fading the Cubs at Wrigley but they are hitting .199 against lefties as they face Doug Davis tomorrow. Davis had some good outings last year and I believe he had a string of eight consecutive starts where he got no decisions where a fair amount of them should have been wins. He is a strikeout pitcher and is solid during the day. In fact, he went deep into games last season more often during the day (88 innings in 13 starts) than at night including 7 innings, 2 ER and 9 Ks in a loss at Wrigley. The Cubs are throwing Glendon Rusch who is inconsistent at best, so lets hope he doesn't pull out the nasty stuff that he seems to have every once in a while. Milwaukee is hitting .319 versus lefties, and El Caballo, AKA Carlos Lee is 4-5 with 1 HR and 2 BB against Rusch. The over/under on his longest hit tomorrow is 430 feet. Both teams have strong pens so that shouldn't affect the decision.    - nutlow

TAKE THE D-TRAIN

Dontrelle Willis is 9-0 in April during his career and 2-0 at Wrigley in 4 starts with a 1.01 ERA. Their pen let Vasquez down last night, surrendering six runs in the eighth, erasing a shutout. Washington and Cincinnati are both throwing lefties…Against lefties this year, Cincy is tops in the league with 18 homers. The Reds are batting .293 compared with Washington’s .274 and 3 homeruns. Other teams with success against lefthanders include Cleveland, Yankees, Milwaukee, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Houston. Though they have had recent success against lefties, Tampa Bay is 11-8 vs. the Yankees since start of last season (+1390) and Tampa Bay with Scott Kazmir as their starter is 17-19 overall during that time (+425). Teams struggling against lefties include Seattle, Baltimore, San Francisco, San Diego, Kansas City Oakland and Detroit Steve Trachsel is 9-4 in 19 starts with a 2.57 versus SF. Last year one of his few games was a two-hit eight inning performance against the Giants. He has seemingly pitched to Bonds over the last few years- that has got to stop. Lost last night with the Sox and the Heat screwed me at the end but I did hit another monster parlay last night when Bentacourt singled in the winning run in the 11th, sorry for not sharing. Have a couple tonight that might be worth a shot- then again they might not be. Aside from Florida, Cincy and Tampa Bay, I also like: 4 Team Parlay St. Louis Cardinals -1½ (+110) Minnesota Twins vs. (976) Kansas City Royals Over 9½ (-105) Los Angeles Angels EVEN Chicago White Sox -126 - about 14-1 5 Team Parlay Atlanta Braves vs. (956) Milwaukee Brewers Over 8½ (-115) Los Angeles Dodgers -117 St. Louis Cardinals -190 New York Mets -103 Detroit Tigers vs. (978) Los Angeles Angels Under 8½ (-110) - about 19-1    - nutlow

SO I THINK WE WENT 3-1...

the other night, taking the Bulls, Pistons and Nets/Pacers over while fading the Spurs, which was not a good idea. The Spurs game exposed that the Kings can not compete with the defending champions. Similarly, the Wizards showed everybody that they don't know how to play defense. I'd take Cleveland and give the 4.5, make Washington prove that they can play with the Cavs in Cleveland. The Bulls shot 13-26 from the 3-point line and couldn't get it done. They will play 48 minutes but they can't outplay Miami on the road. Give the 7.5 and bet that Chicago won't shoot the lights out from downtown again. The White Sox have won 8 in a row and 12 of the last 13 overall, Neither Garland nor Moyer have started out especially well and Moyer's overhyped 10-0 record at home last season notwithstanding, the Mariners have lost five of their last six all of which were at home. Garland is 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA and .183 BAA facing Seattle over the last three seasons. The Sox are packed with some right handed bats to face the southpaw, Jamie Moyer, and likewise Seattle is stacked from the left side against the righty, Garland. Eddie Guardado is still suspect out of the pen with an ERA over 11 and the rest of the relievers haven't been that much better. With the Sox at -125 it seems like the easy call to go with the team having won eight straight against the team losing five of six.    - nutlow