NBA Analysis 4/14-15

Good night on the hardwood last night. One play away from having a great night. Had the Bulls giving 3 points and they had the game in hand. Sweetney gets an offensive rebound up by 2 with 10 seconds left and inexplicably goes back up with it. Of course he doesn’t finish, and the Wizards got that bogus charge call against them with .4. Had it been 1.4 they would have fouled and I’d be back in business. If they call a block, then I got a decent shot at overtime. Basketball is a game of inches, ergo so is sports betting. Ben Gordon went 9-9 from long distance. He continues to oscillate between savior and ineffectiveness. I guess he is a great sixth man long-term; would do Vinne Johnson proud. This guy is shooting 41.9% from the field and 44.1% from 3-point land- so he is 40.8% from 2-point land. And for those who don’t believe that there is a zone that guys could get in… if Gordon had a 45% likelihood of hitting each three, the odds of him hitting all nine were about 7.5 in 10,000 or 1320-1. Magic -5 vs 76ers Did well fading the Sixers last night against the Heat. The Magic are 17-5 SU at home since January 1st. The Sixers may be the ones playing for something, but the Magic are playing like a real team and nothing is more motivating than that. These teams are going in opposite directions and I’ll take the one going up. Both teams are on no rest, the Magic have done fairly well in that condition. 6-1 against the spread and straight up at home with no rest since New Year’s. Warriors -3 at Trailblazers Should have taken GSW last night, they are playing well lately with back to back wins against Dallas and Phoenix. They got their young guys giving it all with lots to prove. The Blazers are already playing their bench players- they call it “their starting lineup.” Without Pryzbilla, GSW is going to outbang them. Both of these teams are on no rest, gotta go with the guys who really want it. The line has moved to 4 now, at 4.5 or 5 I might try to middle it. Cautionary note: Warriors are playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Warriors have played 3 times this year in this situation, lost all three, covered one, and the three were under by 29.5, 1.5 and 21 points. The League is 31-45-1 against the spread and 37-38-2 over/under in the 4th game in 5 nights. Kings +1 at Nuggets Nugs are 0-3 against the spread at home on 2 days rest. Again, the Kings need to win this game to stay comfortable in the playoff chase, while Denver just needs to tune up for the playoffs. This one is tough but the Kings are a light play. Kings are 22-12-2 against the spread and 14-22 over/under when Artest plays 20 minutes. 11-4-1 against the spread and 6-10 over/under at home…. 11-8-1 against the spread on road and 8-12 over/under on road. So that trend looks better for tomorrow nights game at home versus the Hornets. Random Stat of Day: Larry Bird attempted 1727 three pointers in his career, just three more than Danny Ferry but far behind Isiah Rider (1896) and Tracy Murray (1942). None of these guys come close to Van Exel and Ray Allen who are now in the top 5 all-time in attempts with about 4000 each.    - nutlow

Larry Hughes Builds a House

There are fewer and fewer players these days who you can let stand behind the 3-point line without fear that they can shootan open three pointer. While most post players will still be looking for the nearest guy to pass it to, perhaps one-third of post players can take the open jumper. Everyone else can shoot a three, or at least they think they can. There are no guards that fall into that characterization of players who simply feel as though they can not shoot an open three pointer. But that shouldn’t be the case. Larry Hughes should never shoot a 3-pointer! I have always been a Hughes fan. He had a great ‘fro and was exciting in Golden State showed potential in Philly, and helped my fantasy team take the crown over Farfel while Hughes was in Washington. Yesterday he took two jumpers that hit the backboard and nothing else. That’s unbelievable. I believe that even an air ball is closer than the two he put up yesterday. This wasn’t an aberration either; Hughes shoots 28.1% from behind the arch for his career. Last season he averaged 28.2% while taking 3.4 per game! He has improved, I guess. In his first four seasons he shot 69- 345, that’s 20%. He led the comeback yesterday in LeBron’s absence, so I doubt anyone is going to make too big of a deal of his brick laying. If this guy had a jumper, he would be hot. Guys can’t stay in front of him as it is, if they had to respect his jumper then he’d be an all-star.    - nutlow

Tonight We Ask 4 Questions

nutlow: Why would the 76ers really want to get into 8th place in the East and face the Pistons? Bill Walton was talking about teams that missed making the playoffs by virtue of tiebreakers… he said that in recent memory there have been four teams who missed making the playoffs and drafted, by virtue of their better draft position, Gary Payton, Rik Smits, Corey Maggette and Chris Webber?! Needless to say, the four teams who made the playoffs all got blown out in the first round. Not sure which is more amazing, that factoid or that I am quoting Bill Walton for purposes other than ridiculing him. farfel: There's some value in reaching the playoffs and allowing younger players like Andre Iggy, Korver, Dalembert, and Hunter a chance to play in that atmosphere. And there's the possibility that with a guy like AI on your team, the 76ers can pull a miraculous upset. The 76ers upside is mainly via draft, less likely to be free agency or trade - the Sixers have little to trade. With that in mind, the pick - and the minute chance it would be a top 5 pick - would clearly be much more valuable. The Webber case is amazing. Orlando finished at 41-41 that year, after 21 wins in the previous season allowed them to secure the top draft pick and Shaq. After the 20 game improvement, the Magic still didn't make the playoffs (they went 2-2 vs Indiana in the regular season and had the same conference record but were outscored by 5 points in their 4 meetings with Indy) and had a 1-in-66 chance of winning the lottery. They won the lottery. As a result they were able to aquire Penny by trading Webber. Seattle drafted Maggette 13th after a 25-25 season. The Supersonics traded Maggette to Orlando, along with Dale Ellis, Don MacLean and Billy Owens for Horace Grant and a couple of 2nd round picks. I can't imagine what they were thinking. The Pacers "lost" a three-way tie with the Bullets and Knicks in 1988 and used the second pick in the draft to select the Dunking Dutchman. This was a coup, however had they not outscored Orlando by 5 points over their 4 games in the 1993 regular season, they would have been rewarded with Shaq (insert mental photoshoped picture of Shaq in a Pacer uniform). In 1990, Seattle tied Houston in the regular season but lost the tie-break. The Sonics moved up in the lottery to the #2 pick and drafted Gary Payton. Not only did that change the history of their franchise but imagine the Rockets selecting Gary Payton! So, keep an eye on whether Philly or whomever wins by virtue of winning percentage against like opponents, because it might just chance the course of the league. Q. Why are the Orlando Magic 16-5 SU at home since January 1st? A. If I knew this, I woulda been dropping a load on them. Absolutely no idea. My first instinct was the Francis trade, but he wasn't traded until March. Q. Why are the White Sox 5/2 to win the American League and 19/4 to win the World Series? A. Because they upgraded their pitching staff and added a necessary big bat in Thome and solid reserves. What am I missing? Q. Why am I so unsuccessful at sports betting? A. Howard "Bub" Lederer said if you're going to make sports bets as a hobby, you're going to lose. The only way to win is to go full time. Do you know anyone who's a winning sports better? I don't. I'll be sticking to NBA season over/unders in the future.

Toddy Takes it Down

Kudos to Toddy the Schector for 2nd place in the $100 + $9 limit hold em tourney on PartyPoker last night. And kudos to brother Big for his guidance along the way. Toddy is a limit master, consistently cashing in SNG's and multi-tables. He won a Pokerstars tourney earlier last week. Toddy was faced with a dilemma late in the tourney. He had 87k chips, the chip leader had 178k, the 2nd place guy had 97k, 4th place guy had 27k. A chop was proposed where Toddy would receive $2100, about 2nd place money. If he played on, first place paid out $3500, 2nd paid a little more, 3rd place paid $1500. So the potential upside was $1500, the downside - $600, though more if Toddy dropped to 4th, albeit unlikely due to the 4th place guy's chip count. After initially questioning Toddy's decision to chop, I commend him on the decision. It was 130am, he had been playing 3.5 hours, and he was physically and emotionally exhausted. It may sound odd that a man is tired from 210 minutes of watching and clicking; trust me, it takes a lot out of you. Also, the blinds were very high in the tourney. One big hand - the guy flops a set, he has an overpair to your overpair, he gets lucky, etc - and you're out. Or you play on for the next hour at least (especially in limit) to get it over with. Congrats to Toddy on his 2k night.    - farfel

What I don't understand - part 1

Welcome to Uncle Farfel's Home for part 1 of what I don't get. Part 1: Why do NBA players 'dap' each other after free throws? Kwame Brown just airballed a free throw and Luke Walton and Sasha Vujanic walked over to give Kwame a pound. He missed the next one and badly, too. The pound didn't help. It's become commonplace for the pound to occur after that 1st free throw - we expect it, we don't think anything of it. Do you realize how much time you've spent watching daps? It's a pointless exercise, there's no reason for it, it needs to stop. Dap that.    - farfel

Did that really happen?

Did that 2 days rest versus 1 days rest trend really come in at 5-0 over the last few days? NBA Analysis April 7, 2006 The Bulls fit the trend of 39-11-3 ATS when the home team is on 2 days rest and the road team is on 1 day rest. The Bulls are on the playoff bubble and the Nets don’t have a lot to play for. They could delude themselves into thinking they could overtake Miami for the 2nd seed and so they probably will believe that. The Nets do struggle on the road so the 1 or 1.5 point spread is reasonable. At first I thought the public would move this line against the Bulls, considering how bad they are. I took the Nets (-115) giving 1 point… with the monster trend favoring the Bulls I am going to try and take the other side for 1.5 or 2 bets, hopefully at an advantageous spread. If I could get the Bulls and 2 I would love the opportunity to middle it. Okay, so much for that Spurs-Kings first round duel that I hyped earlier, the Kings are now in position to face the Phoenix Suns. Tonight, the Kings play, the Suns. At home the Suns are 6 point underdogs with their usual high road total of 216. But while this game would have meant everything to the Kings and nothing to the Suns, the potential for this to be a first round matchup makes tonights game more significant. Sure the Suns could treat it as an exhibition, thus not giving a lot of confidence to the Kings if they win. However, more likely is that the Suns try to knock the Kings out of that 7th position and instead take on the Lakers in the first round. The Kings will bring it but 6 points is too much to turn down. Those Raptors are good on the road. 14-8 ATS since New Year’s Day to be precise. But they have also been the death of me. They are getting 11 points just because Bosh is injured? Just Kidding. Miami isn’t playing for much, except to keep ahead of the Nets so they should rest Shaq. Here is hoping that Mike James can go off again.    - nutlow

Keep it on the DL

Cubbies signed Derrek Lee to a 5-year deal worth around $65 million. Thus perpetuating the charade of fans holding out hope for a world series winner. On his new contract, Lee actually said, "I always look at it as if there is a deal that makes me happy now, why not sign it? I don't think $2-3 million a year more is going to change my life." That is beautiful, when was the last time you heard an athlete say that? Lee had 46 HR 107 RBI and batted .335 last year. But check out the pre and post-all-star game splits: 84 Games 27 HR 27 Doubles 72 RBI .378 Avg 74 Games 19 HR 23 Doubles 35 RBI .287 Avg The first half was P-I-M-P. People are talking about the big slowdown in the second half of the season, but it was still very productive. It wasn't like Wally Joyner's rookie year. In 1986 Wally hit 21 HR through July and hit .315 before going the rest of the season hitting only 1HR hitting and batting .235! That resulted in his losing the Rookie of the Year crown to Jose Canseco. Now if we can get our pitching back and healthy then I might drink the Kool-Aid. 100 years later we could see a rematch of the 1906 Cubs-Sox World Series, right? - nutlow