NBA Analysis 4/14-15

Good night on the hardwood last night. One play away from having a great night. Had the Bulls giving 3 points and they had the game in hand. Sweetney gets an offensive rebound up by 2 with 10 seconds left and inexplicably goes back up with it. Of course he doesn’t finish, and the Wizards got that bogus charge call against them with .4. Had it been 1.4 they would have fouled and I’d be back in business. If they call a block, then I got a decent shot at overtime. Basketball is a game of inches, ergo so is sports betting. Ben Gordon went 9-9 from long distance. He continues to oscillate between savior and ineffectiveness. I guess he is a great sixth man long-term; would do Vinne Johnson proud. This guy is shooting 41.9% from the field and 44.1% from 3-point land- so he is 40.8% from 2-point land. And for those who don’t believe that there is a zone that guys could get in… if Gordon had a 45% likelihood of hitting each three, the odds of him hitting all nine were about 7.5 in 10,000 or 1320-1. Magic -5 vs 76ers Did well fading the Sixers last night against the Heat. The Magic are 17-5 SU at home since January 1st. The Sixers may be the ones playing for something, but the Magic are playing like a real team and nothing is more motivating than that. These teams are going in opposite directions and I’ll take the one going up. Both teams are on no rest, the Magic have done fairly well in that condition. 6-1 against the spread and straight up at home with no rest since New Year’s. Warriors -3 at Trailblazers Should have taken GSW last night, they are playing well lately with back to back wins against Dallas and Phoenix. They got their young guys giving it all with lots to prove. The Blazers are already playing their bench players- they call it “their starting lineup.” Without Pryzbilla, GSW is going to outbang them. Both of these teams are on no rest, gotta go with the guys who really want it. The line has moved to 4 now, at 4.5 or 5 I might try to middle it. Cautionary note: Warriors are playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Warriors have played 3 times this year in this situation, lost all three, covered one, and the three were under by 29.5, 1.5 and 21 points. The League is 31-45-1 against the spread and 37-38-2 over/under in the 4th game in 5 nights. Kings +1 at Nuggets Nugs are 0-3 against the spread at home on 2 days rest. Again, the Kings need to win this game to stay comfortable in the playoff chase, while Denver just needs to tune up for the playoffs. This one is tough but the Kings are a light play. Kings are 22-12-2 against the spread and 14-22 over/under when Artest plays 20 minutes. 11-4-1 against the spread and 6-10 over/under at home…. 11-8-1 against the spread on road and 8-12 over/under on road. So that trend looks better for tomorrow nights game at home versus the Hornets. Random Stat of Day: Larry Bird attempted 1727 three pointers in his career, just three more than Danny Ferry but far behind Isiah Rider (1896) and Tracy Murray (1942). None of these guys come close to Van Exel and Ray Allen who are now in the top 5 all-time in attempts with about 4000 each.    - nutlow