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Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Did that really happen?

Did that 2 days rest versus 1 days rest trend really come in at 5-0 over the last few days? NBA Analysis April 7, 2006

The Bulls fit the trend of 39-11-3 ATS when the home team is on 2 days rest and the road team is on 1 day rest. The Bulls are on the playoff bubble and the Nets don’t have a lot to play for. They could delude themselves into thinking they could overtake Miami for the 2nd seed and so they probably will believe that. The Nets do struggle on the road so the 1 or 1.5 point spread is reasonable. At first I thought the public would move this line against the Bulls, considering how bad they are. I took the Nets (-115) giving 1 point… with the monster trend favoring the Bulls I am going to try and take the other side for 1.5 or 2 bets, hopefully at an advantageous spread. If I could get the Bulls and 2 I would love the opportunity to middle it.

Okay, so much for that Spurs-Kings first round duel that I hyped earlier, the Kings are now in position to face the Phoenix Suns. Tonight, the Kings play, the Suns. At home the Suns are 6 point underdogs with their usual high road total of 216. But while this game would have meant everything to the Kings and nothing to the Suns, the potential for this to be a first round matchup makes tonights game more significant. Sure the Suns could treat it as an exhibition, thus not giving a lot of confidence to the Kings if they win. However, more likely is that the Suns try to knock the Kings out of that 7th position and instead take on the Lakers in the first round. The Kings will bring it but 6 points is too much to turn down.

Those Raptors are good on the road. 14-8 ATS since New Year’s Day to be precise. But they have also been the death of me. They are getting 11 points just because Bosh is injured? Just Kidding. Miami isn’t playing for much, except to keep ahead of the Nets so they should rest Shaq. Here is hoping that Mike James can go off again.

   - nutlow

comments on "Did that really happen?"

 

Blogger Farfel said ... (11:33 PM):  

What happens when you think too much?

Tonight's results.

Bulls wanted the game more than NJN, Gordon took over late. The teams exploded for 67 points in the 4th, the game was trending on the number and ended 23 points over it.

Didn't watch Toronto-Miami so only commenting based on AP recap. Toronto is playing terribly, James is gunning and hitting, no one else is stepping up for Tor. Villenueva has packed it in, Bosh is watching from the sidelines. Sam Mitchell is giving time to his young ones and reserves, as expected, and the result is losing badly, as expected.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=260411014

Best thing is I've got Toronto and the under on the season - 27.5 I think. Tor has lost 9 straight, they opened with 9 straight losses. Why stop now?

Rafael Araujo was Tor's 1st round pick in the 2004 draft, selected 8th and ahead of such luminaries as Andre Iguodala (9th), Andris Biedrins (11th), and a plethora of others. Why do I mention this? Because Araujo is one of the worst players in NBA history, averaging 3 points per game, 3 rebounds, and 2.5 fouls per game. He defines bust, a main reason Raps GM Pete Babcock was fired. Araujo's nickname is "Hoffa," perfectly suited for a man who has seemingly disappeared on the court.

http://nbadraft.net/2004.asp

At age 25, older than most 2nd year players, Hoffa has limited, if any, upside. I'd be surprised to see him on a NBDL roster in upcoming years.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/stats?statsId=3825

 

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