STATS FOR YOUR DOME

Well, 82 games played to cut down the list of 30 teams to the best of the best. Only 16 teams survive and advance and 14 teams realize how bad you have to be to miss the NBA playoffs. In 2004 the Pistons were 15-6-1 against the spread and 8-12-2 over/under in the playoffs. Of those games, they were 8-4 against the spread and 5-6-1 over/under at home. In 2005 they were 9-3 against the spread and 9-4 over/under at home and 15-10 against the spread and 10-14-1 over/under overall. So that doesn’t point to a home/road trend, just towards betting on the Pistons in general. The Spurs were 15-8 against the spread and 12-11 over/under last playoffs, however they did lose game one to the Nuggets. 9-3 against the spread and 4-8 over/under at home by the way…. In the 2004 First Round home teams were 24-15 ATS 20-17-2 OU and 27-16 SU In 2005 it was a more even 21-22 ATS 22-21 OU and 24-19 SU In 2004, teams giving more than 5 points were 16-7 ATS and 21-2 SU In 2005, teams giving more than 5 points were 11-4 ATS and 13-2 SU In 2004, teams giving more than 9 points were 7-2 ATS and 8-1 SU In 2005, teams giving more than 9 points were 3-0 ATS and SU These were some of the lines posted earlier: Washington +5 at Cleveland 194 (+200) Sac +8.5 at SA 181 (+350) Chicago +8 at Miami 193.5 (+300) Denver +5 at LAC 196 (+190) LAL +7 at Phoenix 216 (+250) Milwaukee +12 at Detroit 184 (+700) Memphis +7 at Dallas 174.5 (+280) Indiana +7 at NJ Nets 174.5 (+280) The aforementioned numbers point toward jumping on the favorites, especially the big favs. That makes sense for Detroit, but I wasn’t too sold by Miami or San Antonio. The Bulls are hot and have played the Heat well all year. ‘Zo is out, which makes a huge difference and perhaps Pat Riley will not be all there on Saturday. I like the 8 points. As for Sacramento, they could steal game one. At +350 that seems like a good value, they definitely have a 22% change of stealing game one, and unless game 1 unmasks something they probably have better than a 22% chance of winning game two (presuming the Spurs win the first one). The Cavs are tough at home, winning 11 of their last 12 and going 15-5 since February. However, their backers haven’t faired as well at 9-11 ATS during that time. The Wiz have covered the last three times they played Cleveland and have been 1-3 OU this season- Saturday’s total is 194. Well, I was wrong that Lawrence Frank wouldn’t want to go into the playoffs with a two-game losing streak including a loss to the NY Knicks, apparently he doesn’t mind. So, one of several things are happening here, one possibility is that the Nets are not as dominant as some people think, two I have no idea what I am talking about and Frank knows his club pretty well. The Pacers covered all three against the Nets this year with final scores totaling 192, 189 and 192. The line is posted as Nets -7 and 174.5. I understand that it’s the playoffs and all but I’m not sure that these are the defensive powerhouses that the East usually sees come playoff time. Phil Jackson has never lost a first round series. Kobe Bryant deserves the MVP but many think that it is going to Steve Nash. But if the Lakers are going to win they need more than the 40 that Kobe will probably bring, they need to stop the Suns from the perimeter. During the year the Lakers allowed 5.8 3-pointers per game including 6.7 per on the road. Phoenix averages just over 10 made per game. Otherwise this is a good matchup for the Lakers as they won’t have to worry too much about a post presence and might even get Brian Cook to shoot some treys. But I have no idea what is going to happen. The Suns are 37-23 ATS 34-24-2 OU and 44-16 SU when they hit 8 3's. The Suns are 8-14 ATS 9-13 OU and 10-12 SU when they hit 7 or less. Against the Lakers this year the Suns hit 7, 8, 10 and 12 3-pointers in each game, following form winning three and losing the game where they hit only 7.    - nutlow