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Friday, April 07, 2006

NBA Analysis - April 7, 2006


Mavericks on 2 days rest this season are 10-5 ATS and 3-12 OU. The Mavs have only gotten 3 points or more on 5 occasions this season and are 2-3 ATS and SU. They've lost the last three with these conditions including one at San Antonio. The Spurs on 1 day rest are 22-22-1 ATS and 19-26 OU - add to that being at home and they become 8-13-0 (-1.9) ATS 6-15-0 (-2.6) OU… After a loss, the Spurs are 9-6-1 (3.3) ATS, 7-9-0 (2.4) OU and 14-2 (11.75) SU.


Dallas and SA are 2-5 OU in their last 7. It's hard to imagine SA losing two in a row at home with the playoffs around the corner. Dallas has had some issues on the road but this isn't very far to travel. 5 points is just too much to refuse, especially in a heated game that is expected to be low scoring. Oh, by the way, I expect it to be low scoring. Additionally, Dallas looks good under the conditions described below.

Let’s throw some good money after bad. Got a nice trend to test with four occurrences tomorrow and another on the 8th and 9th. Teams playing on 2 days rest against teams on 1 days rest are 61-34-3 ATS since January 1st. These are those games:

Grizzlies Bucks home 2&1
Mavericks Spurs away 2&1
Jazz wolves away 2&1
Supersonics blazers away 2&1
Cavaliers Nets away 2&1
20060409 Bobcats Raptors away 2&1

And then you got a bunch of teams playing each other for the second time within 6 days which is a good trend for road teams and the under. The Blazers/Sonics overlap so I gotta be pro-Sonics because they are on 2 days rest and also the visitor.
ATS: 13-23-1 (-1.5)
O/U: 15-21-1

2006 0407 Hornets Raptors 1&1
2006 0407 Blazers Sonics 1&2
2006 0408 Bulls 76ers 2&0
2006 0409 T'wolves Hawks 1&1
2006 0410 Pacers Knicks 0&0

comments on "NBA Analysis - April 7, 2006"

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (2:28 AM):  

One of those nights...when absolutely everything goes right. Expert analysis, the Mavs beat the Spurs in San An.

 

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