MLK, Heuristics, 'Zona and the NBA Draft

On the anniverserey of Martin Luther King's death, we take a quick look at a simple system of drafting college players coming out of the University of Arizona. This connection may seem like a stretch, or a leap but I don't really care. While King and the Civil Rights Movement forced the nation to self-examine and re-examine our views on race, Arizona, the last state to acknowledge King's Birthday as a holiday, is home to a basketball program that allows us not to think when drafting ball players. Malcolm Gladwell is the author of Tipping Point, his most recent book, Blink, examines decision-making that is a result of one's immediate thought without examination. Gladwell cites research by psychologist Dan Goldstein to support his thesis that there are times when decisions made upon reflection is actually worse than an instinctual decision. Interestingly, Gladwell sat down with Bill Simons and proposed his theory that he could do a better job as GM than Isiah Thomas simply by picking top players who came from Duke and UCONN. I think most people could do better than Thomas, and I am sure Farfel will agree. What is unique though is the recognition that there may be some value in picking players from top programs rather than substituting one's own judgement of talent. While Gladwell looks upon Duke and UCONN as the top college programs, the University of Arizona is actually the program to watch. I once was very negative on Lute Olsen, probably because he screwed up my bracket a couple of times in the early 1990's. Lateley, he has done much better in the tourney and his players have significantly outperformed in the NBA. Looking at the NBA draft from 1985- 2004 and it is clear that U of A players should be picked sooner rather than later. One does need to do a whole lot of fancy statistical analysis here, basically, it is clear that more often than not the Arizona player is the better choice than the one immediately prior. Arizona Draftees: First Round Picks: Channing Frye, Andre Igoudala, Richard Jefferson, Jason Terry, Michael Dickerson, Damon Stoudamire, Khalid Reeves, Chris Mills, Bison Dele, Sean Elliot, Anthony Cook. Second Rounders of note: Salim Stoudamire, Luke Walton, Gilbert Arenas, Tom Tolbert, Steve Kerr.